YX 3477 · ORD → SDF

left the gate 6:59 AM CT · taxiing (scheduled 6:58 AM CT → 9:28 AM ET)

Your aircraft is N745YX (E75L), coming in as YX 3405 from GRR: landed 5:20 AM CT.

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ 6am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling8,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3477 · ORD → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?