YX 3489 · CVG → EWR

took off 9:00 AM ET · expected to land 10:20 AM ET (scheduled 8:53 AM ET → 11:05 AM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3489 · CVG → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?