YX 3499 · ELP → ORD

took off 8:22 AM MT · expected to land 11:50 AM CT (scheduled 8:11 AM MT → 12:26 PM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ELP (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3499 · ELP → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?