YX 3504 · IAD → DTW

departs 12:32 PM ET · arrives 2:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3504 · IAD → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?