Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3510
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 3510 · MKE → EWR
departs 7:08 PM CT · arrives 10:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 33%
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 8,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.