YX 3514 · EWR → DTW

took off 10:01 AM ET · expected to land 11:24 AM ET (scheduled 9:46 AM ET → 11:46 AM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from EWR are often late

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at EWR that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3514 · EWR → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?