YX 3582 · ROC → IAD

took off 6:03 AM ET · expected to land 6:51 AM ET (scheduled 5:56 AM ET → 7:25 AM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from ROC are usually not late

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

IAD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3582 · ROC → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?