Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 3616 · EWR → YYZ
departs 5:23 PM ET · arrives 7:22 PM EDT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 37%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
5pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.