YX 3622 · EWR → YYZ

departs 3:57 PM ET · arrives 5:40 PM EDT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3622 · EWR → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?