Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3658
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 3658 · CLE → EWR
departs 5:17 PM ET · arrives 7:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 12%
Tue 11/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.