YX 3676 · PHL → IAD

took off 10:31 AM ET · landed 11:13 AM ET (scheduled 10:26 AM ET → 11:38 AM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IAD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ IAD is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3676 · PHL → IAD

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAD?