YX 3685 · IAD → SDF

took off 8:57 AM ET · expected to land 10:07 AM ET (scheduled 8:34 AM ET → 10:28 AM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SDF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3685 · IAD → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?