Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3714
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 3714 · MYR → EWR
departs 6:50 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 35%
Sun 11/1 37%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MYR
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
MYR (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.