Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4358
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4358 · ORF → LGA
departs 5:26 PM ET · arrives 7:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 49%
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±14 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.