Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4410 · LGA → PIT
departs 6:13 PM ET · arrives 7:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±10 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.