Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4416 · ORD → GRR
departs 10:38 PM CT · arrives 12:48 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 15%
Tue 11/3 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GRR (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.