Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4439
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4439 · BOS → BUF
departs 7:49 PM ET · arrives 9:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.