Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4472 · XNA → LGA
departs 4:16 PM CT · arrives 8:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.