Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4474 · RIC → LGA
departs 5:59 AM ET · arrives 7:27 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Wed 10/28 6%
Thu 10/29 7%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 10%
Sun 11/1 8%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
3%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
3%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
RIC is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from RIC are usually not late
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.