Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4506 · CAE → LGA
departs 3:38 PM ET · arrives 5:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave CAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CAE
Weather at each end
CAE (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.