Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4512 · STL → BOS
departs 6:16 PM CT · arrives 10:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 29%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 15%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.