Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4521
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4521 · LGA → BUF
departs 8:30 PM ET · arrives 9:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.