Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4526
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4526 · LGA → OKC
departs 7:08 PM ET · arrives 10:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OKC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.