Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4554
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4554 · LGA → XNA
departs 6:46 PM ET · arrives 9:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
XNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.