Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4560
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4560 · RDU → LGA
departs 8:20 PM ET · arrives 10:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 41%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 44%
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.