Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4574
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4574 · GSO → LGA
departs 5:31 PM ET · arrives 7:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 46%
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±13 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSO
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
GSO (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.