Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4589
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4589 · LGA → ORF
departs 9:08 PM ET · arrives 10:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 31%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.