Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5590
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 5590 · HXD → LGA
departs 4:05 AM CST · arrives 6:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28 9%
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−29 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −29 pts in 24h
−29 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave HXD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
HXD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.