Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5605
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 5605 · LGA → MEM
departs 8:04 PM ET · arrives 9:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 44%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.