Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5702
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 5702 · BOS → JFK
departs 9:20 PM ET · arrives 10:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 39%
Sun 11/1 37%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.