Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5716
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 5716 · BOS → LGA
departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 8:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 48%
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.