Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 5781 · LGA → BUF
departs 3:49 PM ET · arrives 5:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±12 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.