Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1053 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 1053 · DFW → SJO

departs 10:46 AM CT · arrives 1:46 PM CST

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at SJO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJO

↓ Arrivals into SJO at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

SJO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1053 · DFW → SJO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJO?