Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1197 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 1197 · DFW → XNA

departs 7:58 PM CT · arrives 9:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±3 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.18 in

XNA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,033 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1197 · DFW → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?