Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1241 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 1241 · LAX → DFW

departs 4:37 PM PT · arrives 9:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±5 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

DFW (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1241 · LAX → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?