Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1266 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 1266 · DFW → CVG

departs 8:12 PM CT · arrives 11:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±7 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ CVG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.18 in

CVG (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1266 · DFW → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?