Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1415 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 1415 · YVR → DFW

departs 11:52 AM PDT · arrives 6:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at YVR that day

Weather at each end

YVR (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1415 · YVR → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?