Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1430 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 1430 · DFW → SFO

departs 7:11 PM CT · arrives 9:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±11 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.18 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1430 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?