Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1501 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 1501 · BZN → ORD

departs 1:13 PM MT · arrives 5:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN

↓ BZN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BZN (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1501 · BZN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?