Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 164 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 164 · HNL → LAX

departs 3:37 PM HT · arrives 12:15 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±3 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ HNL usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 164 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?