Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1892 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Today

AA 1892 · PHL → ATL

departs 10:11 PM ET · arrives 12:36 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1892 · PHL → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?