Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1916 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 1916 · SAT → ORD

departs 3:01 PM CT · arrives 6:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.04 in

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1916 · SAT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?