Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1948 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 1948 · SFO → ORD

departs 2:20 PM PT · arrives 8:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1948 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?