Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2047 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 2047 · DFW → PHX

departs 6:42 PM CT · arrives 7:20 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2047 · DFW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?