Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2118 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 2118 · LAX → AUS

departs 4:44 PM PT · arrives 9:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

AUS (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2118 · LAX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?