Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2137 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 2137 · LAX → PHX

departs 1:14 PM PT · arrives 2:41 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.10 in

PHX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2137 · LAX → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?