Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2548 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 2548 · DFW → PSP

departs 11:56 AM CT · arrives 1:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at PSP more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±7 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PSP?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PSP

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.08 in

PSP (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2548 · DFW → PSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to PSP?