Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2568 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Today

AA 2568 · DFW → SAN

departs 10:35 PM CT · arrives 11:43 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±4 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2568 · DFW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?