Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2609 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 2609 · SAT → DFW

departs 2:48 PM CT · arrives 4:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.04 in

DFW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2609 · SAT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?