Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2635 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 2635 · DFW → ONT

departs 12:18 PM CT · arrives 1:32 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.08 in

ONT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2635 · DFW → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?